MTG Deck Probability Calculator
Calculate the probability of drawing specific cards from your Magic: The Gathering deck. Considers deck size, number of target cards, and hand size.
At Least One Target Card
Expected Count
Calculation Info
Calculation is based on hypergeometric distribution, which accounts for sampling without replacement. This is the accurate model for card game probability.
How it works
This tool provides accurate calculations and conversions for your daily needs. Simply enter your values and get instant results.
Our algorithms ensure precision and reliability, making complex calculations simple and accessible to everyone.
Formula
Frequently Asked Questions
How MTG Probability Calculation Works
The calculator uses hypergeometric distribution to accurately calculate the probability of drawing specific cards from your Magic: The Gathering deck.
Main Formula
Probability of drawing at least one target card:
P = 1 - (C(n-k,h) / C(n,h))where:
- n = deck size
- k = number of target cards in deck
- h = hand size
- C(a,b) = binomial coefficient
Why Hypergeometric Distribution?
In Magic: The Gathering, cards don't return to the deck after being played, making hypergeometric distribution the accurate model for probability calculation.
Usage Examples
- Probability of drawing a specific card in opening hand
- Calculating combo chances on a specific turn
- Optimizing number of card copies in deck
- Analyzing deck consistency
Standard Sizes
- Standard/Pioneer/Modern: 60 cards, 7-card opening hand
- Commander: 100 cards, 7-card opening hand
- Limited: 40 cards, 7-card opening hand